── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 86% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Holger Rune
86%14%
Hard: 88% / 12%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 69% / 31%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#127
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
DEN
198cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Holger Rune | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | F | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Holger Rune | 6-3 6-4 |