── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniel Merida Aguilar
64%36%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 65% / 35%
Grass: 90% / 10%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Daniel Merida Aguilar
39th · below avg
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Daniel Merida Aguilar
89th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#31
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
198cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Daniel Merida Aguilar
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-3 7-5 6-2 |