── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 76% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Alex Michelsen
76%24%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 81% / 19%
Grass: 71% / 29%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Alex Michelsen
59th · average
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Alex Michelsen
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#47
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
USA
198cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Alex Michelsen
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Grass1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2025-06-16 | Halle | Grass | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 2-0 RET |