── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Cristian Garin a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Cristian Garin
Jan Choinski
51%49%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 52% / 48%
Grass: 69% / 31%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Cristian Garin
28th · below avg
Jan Choinski
45th · average
Return
Cristian Garin
65th · average
Jan Choinski
22th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#98
model rank
#102
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CHI
country
GBR
185cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Cristian Garin■ Jan Choinski
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | Q2 | Cristian Garin | 6-2 3-6 6-2 |
| 2024-09-30 | Braga CH | Clay | R32 | Cristian Garin | 6-2 6-7(5) 6-1 |