── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Cristian Garin 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Cristian Garin
Yosuke Watanuki
70%30%
Hard: 45% / 55%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 66% / 34%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Cristian Garin
31th · below avg
Yosuke Watanuki
14th · poor
Return
Cristian Garin
72th · strong
Yosuke Watanuki
31th · below avg

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#99
model rank
#164
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CHI
country
JPN
185cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Cristian GarinYosuke Watanuki
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-08-25Us OpenHardQ1Cristian Garin6-4 6-4