── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Cristian Garin
Matteo Arnaldi
47%53%
Hard: 36% / 64%
Clay: 35% / 65%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Cristian Garin
28th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Return
Cristian Garin
65th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#99
model rank
#84
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CHI
country
ITA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Cristian Garin■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Cristian Garin | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-09-15 | Davis Cup Finals RR: ITA vs CHI | Hard | RR | Matteo Arnaldi | 2-6 6-4 6-3 |