── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Bolt 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Elias Ymer
Alex Bolt
40%60%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Elias Ymer
4th · poor
Alex Bolt
35th · below avg
Return
Elias Ymer
14th · poor
Alex Bolt
8th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#168
model rank
#145
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Left
SWE
country
AUS
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Elias Ymer■ Alex Bolt
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | Q1 | Elias Ymer | 7-6(4) 7-6(5) |