── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pavel Kotov 67% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Elias Ymer
Pavel Kotov
33%67%
Hard: 25% / 75%
Clay: 40% / 60%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Elias Ymer
5th · poor
Pavel Kotov
38th · below avg
Return
Elias Ymer
7th · poor
Pavel Kotov
6th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#182
model rank
#140
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
SWE
country
RUS
185cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Elias Ymer■ Pavel Kotov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay0–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Road to the Rolex Shanghai Masters CH | Hard | R32 | Pavel Kotov | 3-6 6-3 7-6(9) |
| 2022-05-09 | Bordeaux CH | Clay | QF | Pavel Kotov | 7-6(2) 6-3 |
| 2021-10-18 | Moscow | Hard | Q1 | Elias Ymer | 6-2 6-3 |