── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jordan Thompson
Matteo Arnaldi
43%57%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 8% / 92%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jordan Thompson
58th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Jordan Thompson
64th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#80
model rank
#54
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jordan Thompson■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Jordan Thompson | 7-5 6-2 7-6(5) |