── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Mackenzie Mcdonald a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Mackenzie Mcdonald
Shintaro Mochizuki
52%48%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 28% / 72%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Mackenzie Mcdonald
22th · below avg
Shintaro Mochizuki
0th · poor
Return
Mackenzie Mcdonald
41th · average
Shintaro Mochizuki
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#158
model rank
#167
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
JPN
178cm
height
175cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Mackenzie Mcdonald■ Shintaro Mochizuki
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass0–2
Hard2–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Nottingham CH | Grass | R16 | Shintaro Mochizuki | 7-6(3) 7-5 |
| 2025-11-02 | Athens | Hard | Q2 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 4-6 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-06-03 | Surbiton CH | Grass | R16 | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-09-26 | Seoul | Hard | R16 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 6-3 6-4 |