── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 68% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Mackenzie Mcdonald
Matteo Arnaldi
32%68%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 5% / 95%
Grass: 75% / 25%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Mackenzie Mcdonald
22th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Return
Mackenzie Mcdonald
42th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#159
model rank
#84
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
178cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Mackenzie Mcdonald■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R128 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 4-6 6-4 6-4 |