── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Karen Khachanov 79% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Karen Khachanov
Kei Nishikori
79%21%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 72% / 28%
Grass: 51% / 49%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Karen Khachanov
90th · elite
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Return
Karen Khachanov
81th · strong
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#26
model rank
#126
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
JPN
198cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Karen Khachanov■ Kei Nishikori
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
Hard0–3
Grass2–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Geneva | Clay | R16 | Karen Khachanov | 7-5 2-5 RET |
| 2024-12-30 | Hong Kong | Hard | R16 | Kei Nishikori | 4-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 2021-05-31 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Kei Nishikori | 4-6 6-2 2-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-05-03 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Kei Nishikori | 6-7(6) 6-2 6-2 |
| 2018-10-22 | Vienna | Hard | R16 | Kei Nishikori | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2018-06-18 | Halle | Grass | R16 | Karen Khachanov | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2017-06-19 | Halle | Grass | R16 | Karen Khachanov | 3-2 RET |
| 2016-08-29 | US Open | Hard | R64 | Kei Nishikori | 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-3 |