── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Karen Khachanov
Alex De Minaur
40%60%
Hard: 38% / 62%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 38% / 62%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Karen Khachanov
89th · strong
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Karen Khachanov
81th · strong
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#25
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
AUS
198cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Karen Khachanov■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-10-21 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Karen Khachanov | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-02-21 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Karen Khachanov | 6-3 6-7(1) 7-5 |
| 2020-08-31 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 0-6 4-6 6-3 6-1 |