── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Camilo Ugo Carabelli 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Nicolas Jarry
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
39%61%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 92% / 8%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Nicolas Jarry
81th · strong
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
24th · below avg
Return
Nicolas Jarry
12th · poor
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
50th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#126
model rank
#82
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CHI
country
ARG
201cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Nicolas Jarry■ Camilo Ugo Carabelli
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay3–2
Hard1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | Santiago | Clay | R32 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 5-7 6-3 7-6(9) |
| 2023-02-20 | Rio De Janeiro | Clay | Q1 | Nicolas Jarry | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2021-11-15 | Campinas CH | Clay | R16 | Nicolas Jarry | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2021-08-23 | Warsaw CH | Clay | QF | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021-04-19 | Salinas 1 CH | Hard | SF | Nicolas Jarry | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2021-02-14 | Concepcion CH | Clay | R32 | Nicolas Jarry | 6-1 6-7(1) 6-2 |