── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexei Popyrin 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Nicolas Jarry
Alexei Popyrin
37%63%
Hard: 37% / 63%
Clay: 44% / 56%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Nicolas Jarry
81th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Nicolas Jarry
12th · poor
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#126
model rank
#75
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CHI
country
AUS
201cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Nicolas Jarry■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
Hard1–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Geneva | Clay | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | R64 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Nicolas Jarry | 7-5 7-6(6) |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | W/O |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Nicolas Jarry | 3-6 7-5 6-4 |