── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Nicolas Jarry
Holger Rune
49%51%
Hard: 38% / 62%
Clay: 21% / 79%
Grass: 51% / 49%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Nicolas Jarry
85th · strong
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Return
Nicolas Jarry
10th · poor
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#132
model rank
#127
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CHI
country
DEN
201cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Nicolas Jarry■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Nicolas Jarry | 4-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-10-21 | Basel | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-4 7-6(3) |