── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 86% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Nicolas Jarry
Joao Fonseca
14%86%
Hard: 11% / 89%
Clay: 26% / 74%
Grass: 54% / 46%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Nicolas Jarry
81th · strong
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Nicolas Jarry
12th · poor
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#126
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CHI
country
BRA
201cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Nicolas Jarry■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R32 | Nicolas Jarry | 6-3 6-4 3-6 7-6(4) |