── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 91% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Cameron Norrie
Carlos Alcaraz
9%91%
Hard: 10% / 90%
Clay: 11% / 89%
Grass: 11% / 89%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Cameron Norrie
64th · average
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Cameron Norrie
70th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#36
model rank
#2
Clay
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
GBR
country
ESP
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Cameron Norrie■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–3
Grass0–1
Clay1–2
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Cameron Norrie | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-02-20 | Rio De Janeiro | Clay | F | Cameron Norrie | 5-7 6-4 7-5 |
| 2023-02-13 | Buenos Aires | Clay | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-08-15 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Cameron Norrie | 7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-4 |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-7(4) 6-3 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 6-3 |