── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Bolt 67% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Marc Polmans
Alex Bolt
33%67%
Hard: 39% / 61%
Clay: 64% / 36%
Grass: 34% / 66%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Marc Polmans
2th · poor
Alex Bolt
28th · below avg
Return
Marc Polmans
4th · poor
Alex Bolt
2th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#186
model rank
#172
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
AUS
country
AUS
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Marc Polmans■ Alex Bolt
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–4
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | Canberra CH | Hard | Q1 | Marc Polmans | 7-6(4) 7-5 |
| 2025-11-10 | Brisbane 3 CH | Hard | R16 | Alex Bolt | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2021-05-31 | Roland Garros | Clay | Q1 | Marc Polmans | 6-3 3-6 6-3 |
| 2018-01-01 | Playford CH | Hard | R16 | Alex Bolt | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2016-02-22 | Australia F1 | Hard | R32 | Marc Polmans | 4-6 6-1 6-4 |
| 2013-10-07 | Australia F9 | Hard | R16 | Alex Bolt | 7-6(1) 6-2 |
| 2013-09-16 | Australia F7 | Hard | R16 | Alex Bolt | 6-4 6-7(3) 6-2 |