── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Gael Monfils
70%30%
Hard: 59% / 41%
Clay: 74% / 26%
Grass: 73% / 27%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Gael Monfils
60th · average
Return
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Gael Monfils
73th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#24
model rank
#73
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
FRA
196cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Gael Monfils
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–0
Hard0–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-07-31 | Washington | Hard | R32 | Gael Monfils | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Gael Monfils | 6-1 6-0 6-4 |
| 2020-09-28 | Roland Garros | Clay | R128 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3 |