── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Alexander Bublik 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Alexander Bublik
Adrian Mannarino
80%20%
Hard: 72% / 28%
Clay: 93% / 7%
Grass: 64% / 36%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Adrian Mannarino
22th · below avg
Return
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Adrian Mannarino
56th · average

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#24
model rank
#130
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
KAZ
country
FRA
196cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Alexander BublikAdrian Mannarino
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard11
── 2 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-09-25BeijingHardR32Adrian Mannarino6-3 6-2
2020-01-06DohaHardR32Alexander Bublik6-3 6-4