── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Marin Cilic
69%31%
Hard: 65% / 35%
Clay: 74% / 26%
Grass: 48% / 52%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
89th · strong
Marin Cilic
77th · strong
Return
Alexander Bublik
47th · average
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#30
model rank
#83
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
CRO
196cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Grass0–1
Clay0–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 6-1 6-4 |
| 2022-06-13 | Queen's Club | Grass | R16 | Marin Cilic | 7-6(6) 7-5 |
| 2021-05-10 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Marin Cilic | 4-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2020-09-14 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Marin Cilic | 6-7(4) 6-2 6-4 |