── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Tommy Paul
43%57%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 38% / 62%
Grass: 48% / 52%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
91th · elite
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Return
Alexander Bublik
49th · average
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
USA
196cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–4
Grass1–1
Clay0–1
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Alexander Bublik | 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1 |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 5-7 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021-03-01 | Rotterdam | Hard | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-7(5) 6-3 6-1 |
| 2020-09-21 | Hamburg | Clay | Q2 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | Q2 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2018-12-31 | Playford CH | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 1-6 6-4 7-5 |