── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Matteo Berrettini
58%42%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 45% / 55%
Grass: 36% / 64%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
91th · elite
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Return
Alexander Bublik
49th · average
Matteo Berrettini
35th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#40
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
ITA
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Matteo Berrettini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-01-05 | Antalya | Hard | QF | Alexander Bublik | 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| 2017-09-11 | Istanbul CH | Hard | SF | Matteo Berrettini | 7-5 6-3 |