── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Felix Auger Aliassime
39%61%
Hard: 40% / 60%
Clay: 46% / 54%
Grass: 51% / 49%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
91th · elite
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Return
Alexander Bublik
49th · average
Felix Auger Aliassime
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#11
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
CAN
196cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Felix Auger Aliassime
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–5
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Rotterdam | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-6(7) 6-7(4) 6-3 |
| 2024-01-29 | Montpellier | Hard | SF | Alexander Bublik | 4-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2020-09-21 | Hamburg | Clay | R16 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019-10-07 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-6(5) 4-0 RET |