── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Alexei Popyrin
70%30%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 56% / 44%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#24
model rank
#75
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
AUS
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–3
Clay1–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2024-02-19 | Doha | Hard | QF | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-02-22 | Singapore | Hard | F | Alexei Popyrin | 4-6 6-0 6-2 |
| 2018-07-16 | Astana CH | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 5-7 6-3 6-4 |