── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Sebastian Baez
71%29%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 92% / 8%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
91th · elite
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Alexander Bublik
49th · average
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#89
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
ARG
196cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Alexander Bublik | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R128 | Alexander Bublik | 6-3 6-4 |