── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Jack Draper
54%46%
Hard: 49% / 51%
Clay: 46% / 54%
Grass: 52% / 48%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
89th · strong
Jack Draper
95th · elite
Return
Alexander Bublik
47th · average
Jack Draper
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#30
model rank
#34
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Left
KAZ
country
GBR
196cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Jack Draper
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
Grass1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Alexander Bublik | 5-7 6-3 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-01-08 | Adelaide | Hard | SF | Jack Draper | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2021-06-14 | Queen's Club | Grass | R16 | Jack Draper | 7-6(5) 7-6(0) |
| 2019-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | Q1 | Alexander Bublik | 6-2 1-6 6-3 |