── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 72% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Bublik
Rinky Hijikata
72%28%
Hard: 73% / 27%
Clay: 90% / 10%
Grass: 70% / 30%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Bublik
91th · elite
Rinky Hijikata
19th · poor
Return
Alexander Bublik
49th · average
Rinky Hijikata
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#95
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
KAZ
country
AUS
196cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Bublik■ Rinky Hijikata
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Rinky Hijikata | 6-7(3) 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2025-03-11 | Phoenix CH | Hard | R16 | Alexander Bublik | 6-2 5-7 6-3 |