── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexandre Muller
Matteo Arnaldi
36%64%
Hard: 46% / 54%
Clay: 22% / 78%
Grass: 53% / 47%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexandre Muller
23th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Alexandre Muller
19th · poor
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#147
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
FRA
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexandre Muller■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | Q2 | Alexandre Muller | 6-1 6-7(4) 6-4 |
| 2024-07-22 | Umag | Clay | R32 | Alexandre Muller | 7-6(8) 6-4 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 6-1 6-3 |