── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Reilly Opelka 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Reilly Opelka
Nicolas Jarry
57%43%
Hard: 72% / 28%
Clay: 32% / 68%
Grass: 32% / 68%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Reilly Opelka
96th · elite
Nicolas Jarry
81th · strong
Return
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Nicolas Jarry
12th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#100
model rank
#126
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
CHI
211cm
height
201cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Reilly Opelka■ Nicolas Jarry
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Clay0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-09 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | R16 | Reilly Opelka | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2017-05-29 | Roland Garros | Clay | Q3 | Nicolas Jarry | 7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 |