── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Reilly Opelka
Tommy Paul
22%78%
Hard: 31% / 69%
Clay: 14% / 86%
Grass: 16% / 84%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Reilly Opelka
97th · elite
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Return
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#100
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
211cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Reilly Opelka■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Adelaide | Hard | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | QF | Tommy Paul | 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2018-11-12 | Champaign CH | Hard | SF | Reilly Opelka | 2-6 6-4 6-4 |