── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Reilly Opelka
Alex De Minaur
19%81%
Hard: 23% / 77%
Clay: 14% / 86%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Reilly Opelka
97th · elite
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#100
model rank
#10
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
211cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Reilly Opelka■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–4
Grass0–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Reilly Opelka | 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| 2022-06-13 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-10-21 | Basel | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(2) 6-7(4) 7-6(3) |
| 2019-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2019-07-22 | Atlanta | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3 |
| 2019-01-07 | Sydney | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 7-6(5) |