── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Andrey Rublev 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Andrey Rublev
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58%42%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 69% / 31%
Grass: 70% / 30%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Andrey Rublev
84th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58th · average
Return
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#19
model rank
#33
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Andrey Rublev■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay4–1
Hard3–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 6-7(3) 7-6(2) 3-0 RET |
| 2025-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 7-6(10) 6-4 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 7-6(8) 6-3 |
| 2023-02-27 | Dubai | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 1-6 7-6(6) 7-6(3) |
| 2020-09-28 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Andrey Rublev | 7-5 6-1 3-6 6-1 |