── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Andrey Rublev
Alex De Minaur
39%61%
Hard: 35% / 65%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 30% / 70%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Andrey Rublev
80th · strong
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#27
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
AUS
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Andrey Rublev■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–5
Clay1–0
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 1-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-02-17 | Doha | Hard | QF | Andrey Rublev | 6-1 3-6 7-6(8) |
| 2024-02-12 | Rotterdam | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(5) 4-6 6-3 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0 |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Andrey Rublev | 4-6 6-3 6-1 |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 2-6 6-1 6-4 |
| 2018-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2 |
| 2018-07-30 | Washington | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 5-7 7-6(6) 6-4 |