── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Andrey Rublev 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Andrey Rublev
Alexei Popyrin
71%29%
Hard: 72% / 28%
Clay: 75% / 25%
Grass: 80% / 20%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Return
Andrey Rublev
80th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#90
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
AUS
188cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Andrey Rublev■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Clay0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | F | Alexei Popyrin | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-04-08 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-10-23 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 7-6(5) 6-4 |