── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 92% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Andrey Rublev
Jannik Sinner
8%92%
Hard: 6% / 94%
Clay: 19% / 81%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Andrey Rublev
84th · strong
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Return
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#19
model rank
#1
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ITA
188cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Andrey Rublev■ Jannik Sinner
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–4
Hard2–4
── 11 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 4-6 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Andrey Rublev | 6-3 1-6 6-2 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2023-10-23 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 7-6(5) |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-05-23 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 1-6 6-4 2-0 RET |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 5-7 6-1 6-3 |
| 2021-04-19 | Barcelona | Clay | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 7-6(6) |
| 2020-10-26 | Vienna | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 2-1 RET |