── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 88% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Andrey Rublev
Carlos Alcaraz
12%88%
Hard: 12% / 88%
Clay: 19% / 81%
Grass: 11% / 89%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Andrey Rublev
84th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#19
model rank
#2
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Andrey Rublev■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–4
Grass0–1
Clay1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 4-6 7-5 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(8) |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | QF | Andrey Rublev | 4-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-2 |