── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Andrey Rublev 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Andrey Rublev
Matteo Arnaldi
70%30%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 88% / 12%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Andrey Rublev
80th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ITA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Andrey Rublev■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Clay0–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | SF | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 7-6(6) 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-10-23 | Vienna | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 7-5 6-3 |