── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 89% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Roman Safiullin
Carlos Alcaraz
11%89%
Hard: 8% / 92%
Clay: 9% / 91%
Grass: 9% / 91%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Roman Safiullin
70th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Return
Roman Safiullin
76th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#42
model rank
#2
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Roman Safiullin■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay0–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | R128 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Roman Safiullin | 6-3 6-4 |