── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Taylor Fritz
Alex De Minaur
43%57%
Hard: 43% / 57%
Clay: 31% / 69%
Grass: 59% / 41%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Taylor Fritz
97th · elite
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Taylor Fritz
76th · strong
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#8
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Taylor Fritz■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–6
Grass1–1
── 12 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2024-11-21 | Davis Cup Finals QF: USA vs AUS | Hard | RR | Taylor Fritz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Taylor Fritz | 5-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-01-01 | United Cup | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(7) 4-6 6-1 |
| 2022-06-20 | Eastbourne | Grass | SF | Taylor Fritz | 6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Taylor Fritz | 3-6 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Taylor Fritz | 7-6(4) 6-2 1-6 6-4 |
| 2019-10-21 | Basel | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2019-07-22 | Atlanta | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 7-6(2) |
| 2018-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 4-3(8) 4-1 4-2 |
| 2018-06-04 | Surbiton CH | Grass | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 7-6(4) |