── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Taylor Fritz
Carlos Alcaraz
23%77%
Hard: 23% / 77%
Clay: 8% / 92%
Grass: 24% / 76%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Taylor Fritz
98th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Return
Taylor Fritz
82th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#9
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Taylor Fritz■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–5
Grass0–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 4-6 13-11 |
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(2) 7-5 6-3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Taylor Fritz | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 5-7 6-3 7-6(6) |
| 2024-09-20 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-2 |