── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Taylor Fritz 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Taylor Fritz
Matteo Arnaldi
70%30%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 36% / 64%
Grass: 95% / 5%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Taylor Fritz
97th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Taylor Fritz
76th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#54
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
196cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Taylor Fritz■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Taylor Fritz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 4-6 6-3 |