── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 87% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Fabio Fognini
87%13%
Hard: 87% / 13%
Clay: 82% / 18%
Grass: 83% / 17%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Fabio Fognini
4th · poor
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Fabio Fognini
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#148
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
185cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Fabio Fognini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-0 6-2 |
| 2019-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Fabio Fognini | 7-6(3) 6-3 |