── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 83% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Roberto Bautista Agut
83%17%
Hard: 80% / 20%
Clay: 81% / 19%
Grass: 70% / 30%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Roberto Bautista Agut
37th · below avg
Return
Tommy Paul
94th · elite
Roberto Bautista Agut
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#130
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Roberto Bautista Agut
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
Grass1–0
Hard2–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 4-6 6-2 7-5 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-08-09 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-05-10 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-04-12 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 6-3 6-4 |