── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 84% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Adrian Mannarino
84%16%
Hard: 77% / 23%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Adrian Mannarino
22th · below avg
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Adrian Mannarino
56th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#130
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
USA
country
FRA
185cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Adrian Mannarino
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
Grass1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 2-6 6-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Adrian Mannarino | 5-7 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-10-28 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Adrian Mannarino | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 6-4 6-1 |