── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Kei Nishikori
82%18%
Hard: 77% / 23%
Clay: 79% / 21%
Grass: 58% / 42%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#126
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
JPN
185cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Kei Nishikori
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-7(3) 6-0 6-3 6-1 |
| 2017-07-31 | Washington | Hard | QF | Kei Nishikori | 3-6 7-6(8) 6-4 |