── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Reilly Opelka
78%22%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Reilly Opelka
97th · elite
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#100
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
185cm
height
211cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Reilly Opelka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Adelaide | Hard | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | QF | Tommy Paul | 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2018-11-12 | Champaign CH | Hard | SF | Reilly Opelka | 2-6 6-4 6-4 |