── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Taylor Fritz
51%49%
Hard: 45% / 55%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 36% / 64%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Taylor Fritz
97th · elite
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Taylor Fritz
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#15
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
185cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Taylor Fritz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–4
Clay1–0
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Hard | QF | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-02-12 | Delray Beach | Hard | F | Taylor Fritz | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-02-27 | Acapulco | Hard | SF | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(2) |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Taylor Fritz | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2021-11-08 | Stockholm | Hard | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-10-25 | St. Petersburg | Hard | R16 | Taylor Fritz | 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2017-11-13 | Champaign CH | Hard | QF | Taylor Fritz | 6-1 3-0 RET |
| 2017-07-10 | Winnetka CH | Hard | R16 | Tommy Paul | 7-6(7) 7-5 |
| 2015-05-11 | Spain F13 | Clay | SF | Tommy Paul | 3-6 6-4 6-3 |