── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Frances Tiafoe
61%39%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 65% / 35%
Grass: 71% / 29%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#31
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard3–2
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Houston | Clay | SF | Tommy Paul | 7-5 4-6 7-6(7) |
| 2024-02-12 | Delray Beach | Hard | SF | Tommy Paul | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2022-01-10 | Adelaide 2 | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2021-11-08 | Stockholm | Hard | SF | Tommy Paul | 5-7 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2020-02-17 | Delray Beach | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2016-07-25 | Lexington CH | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2015-01-19 | USA F5 | Clay | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-7(7) 6-1 |